As people of a technical bent, we are not inclined to conspiracy theories, and tend to put most of humanity’s errors and misunderstandings down to simple ignorance, lack of sufficient analysis, or differing perspectives of the groups involved. 1

The basis for the apparent ignorance is surely the confusion underlying the definitions of reserves and the lack of accurate and reliable data.

Where one source predicts an ultimate oil resource of 2000 Gigabarrels another forecasts that 3000 Gigabarrels may be available, but based on different assumptions and probabilities.

Overall the only "conspiracy" that would appear to exist is that of the Emperor's New Clothes variety, in other words a reluctance to appear out of step with the industry and government official sources, so the one will support the other and thus gain a semblance of credibility, whilst often being based on the same, possibly flawed, data sources.


Updated: 13/May/2004